Calculation details for Karthi

Step #1 - Historical movie details for Karthi

No Movie Year Tamilnadu Collection Domestic Collection Overseas Collection Total Collection
1 Paiya 2010 18.00 35.00 4.49 39.49
2 Siruthai 2011 26.00 28.50 1.50 30.00
3 Komban 2015 27.00 29.75 3.15 32.90
4 Thozha 2016 19.00 33.50 4.50 38.00
5 Kaashmora 2016 30.00 49.70 11.19 60.89
6 Kaatru Veliyidai 2017 15.30 21.80 10.64 32.44
7 Theeran Adhigaram Ondru 2017 30.80 47.65 9.00 56.65

Step #2 - Adjust collections based on inflation rate

We all know that movie ticket prices aren't what they used to be. The cost of consumer goods and services rise each year. So, taking inflation into account is the only way to meaningfully compare the box office collection of movies over time. Ideally we should use India inflation rate for adjusting box office collection in India and inflation rate from respective countries for overseas collection. For simplicity, our calculations assume US inflation rate as the basis for adjusting the box office collection of all overseas countries. We also take into account the currency rate change over a period of time to accurately calculate the present box office collection values of historical movies.

Step #2a - Collect data to calculate inflation (courtesy www.worldbank.org, www.wikipedia.org/)

Year India Inflation Rate India CPI (Consumer Price Index)
2010 11.99229692 100
2011 8.857845297 108.8578453
2012 9.312445605 118.9951729
2013 10.90764331 131.9747419
2014 6.353194544 140.7504026
2015 5.872426595 147.6569875
2016 4.97 154.99553977
2017 0.8 156.235504088
Year US Inflation Rate US CPI (Consumer Price Index)
2010 1.640043442 100
2011 3.156841569 103.1568416
2012 2.069337265 105.2915045
2013 1.464832656 106.8338489
2014 1.622222977 108.5669321
2015 0.118627136 108.695722
2016 1.3 110.108766386
2017 2.5 112.86148554565
Year Average US Dollar to Indian Rupees Exchange Rate
2010 45.5768
2011 47.9229
2012 54.4091
2013 60.936
2014 63.469
2015 64.20012
2016 67.26527
2017 67.69355

Step #2b - Apply inflation

Present box office collection value of historical movies is calculated by using a simple formula:

Collection(y) = ( CPI(y) / CPI(x) ) * Collection(x)

where "x" represents historical CPI and box office collection values and "y" represents current values.

Example domestic calculations for Paiya
Paiya release year
2010
2010 CPI value
100
Current CPI value
156.235504088
India collection in 2010
35.00 Cr
Inflation adjusted collection
(156.235504088 / 100 ) * 35.00 = 54.68Cr
Example overseas calculations for Paiya
Paiya release year
2010
2010 CPI value
100
2010 USD to INR exchange rate
45.5768
Current CPI value
112.86148554565
Current USD to INR exchange rate
67.69355
Overseas collection in 2010
4.49 Cr = 4.49/45.5768 = $0.99MM
Present value of collection USD
(112.86148554565 / 100 ) * 0.98515033964649 = $1.11 MM
Present value of collection INR
$1.11MM * 67.69355 = 7.53 Cr

Total Paiya collection in 2010 = 35.00 + 4.49 = 39.49 Cr

Present value of Paiya collection = 54.68 + 7.53 = 62.21 Cr

Step #2c - Calculate present value of collection based on inflation for all movies

No Movie Year Inflation Adjusted Tamilnadu Collection Inflation Adjusted Domestic Collection Inflation Adjusted Overseas Collection Inflation Adjusted Total Collection
1 Paiya 2010 28.12 54.68 7.53 62.21
2 Siruthai 2011 37.32 40.90 2.32 43.22
3 Komban 2015 28.57 31.48 3.45 34.93
4 Thozha 2016 19.15 33.77 4.64 38.41
5 Kaashmora 2016 30.24 50.10 11.54 61.64
6 Kaatru Veliyidai 2017 15.30 21.80 10.64 32.44
7 Theeran Adhigaram Ondru 2017 30.80 47.65 9.00 56.65

Step #3 - Calculate expected collection based on weightage

For calculating expected collection for an actor, we give appropriate weightage to the movies based on several factors. The weighted average is used to calculate the expected collection of an actor.
No Movie Year Inflation Adjusted Total Collection Weightage Collection * Weightage
1 Paiya 2010 62.21 1.00 62.21
2 Siruthai 2011 43.22 1.00 43.22
3 Komban 2015 34.93 3.00 104.78
4 Thozha 2016 38.41 2.00 76.82
5 Kaashmora 2016 61.64 3.00 184.92
6 Kaatru Veliyidai 2017 32.44 2.00 64.88
7 Theeran Adhigaram Ondru 2017 56.65 3.00 169.95
Total 15 706.78

Total expected collection for Karthi = 706.78/15 = 47.12 Cr