Calculation details for Venkatesh

Step #1 - Historical movie details for Venkatesh

No Movie Year Tamilnadu Collection Domestic Collection Overseas Collection Total Collection
1 Drushyam 2014 25.00 28.00 2.50 30.50
2 Babu Bangaram 2016 38.50 45.25 3.97 49.22
3 Guru 2017 27.40 30.50 1.58 32.08

Step #2 - Adjust collections based on inflation rate

We all know that movie ticket prices aren't what they used to be. The cost of consumer goods and services rise each year. So, taking inflation into account is the only way to meaningfully compare the box office collection of movies over time. Ideally we should use India inflation rate for adjusting box office collection in India and inflation rate from respective countries for overseas collection. For simplicity, our calculations assume US inflation rate as the basis for adjusting the box office collection of all overseas countries. We also take into account the currency rate change over a period of time to accurately calculate the present box office collection values of historical movies.

Step #2a - Collect data to calculate inflation (courtesy www.worldbank.org, www.wikipedia.org/)

Year India Inflation Rate India CPI (Consumer Price Index)
2014 6.353194544 140.7504026
2015 5.872426595 147.6569875
2016 4.97 154.99553977
2017 0.8 156.235504088
Year US Inflation Rate US CPI (Consumer Price Index)
2014 1.622222977 108.5669321
2015 0.118627136 108.695722
2016 1.3 110.108766386
2017 2.5 112.86148554565
Year Average US Dollar to Indian Rupees Exchange Rate
2014 63.469
2015 64.20012
2016 67.26527
2017 67.69355

Step #2b - Apply inflation

Present box office collection value of historical movies is calculated by using a simple formula:

Collection(y) = ( CPI(y) / CPI(x) ) * Collection(x)

where "x" represents historical CPI and box office collection values and "y" represents current values.

Example domestic calculations for Drushyam
Drushyam release year
2014
2014 CPI value
140.7504026
Current CPI value
156.235504088
India collection in 2014
28.00 Cr
Inflation adjusted collection
(156.235504088 / 140.7504026 ) * 28.00 = 31.08Cr
Example overseas calculations for Drushyam
Drushyam release year
2014
2014 CPI value
108.5669321
2014 USD to INR exchange rate
63.469
Current CPI value
112.86148554565
Current USD to INR exchange rate
67.69355
Overseas collection in 2014
2.50 Cr = 2.50/63.469 = $0.39MM
Present value of collection USD
(112.86148554565 / 108.5669321 ) * 0.39389308166191 = $0.41 MM
Present value of collection INR
$0.41MM * 67.69355 = 2.77 Cr

Total Drushyam collection in 2014 = 28.00 + 2.50 = 30.50 Cr

Present value of Drushyam collection = 31.08 + 2.77 = 33.85 Cr

Step #2c - Calculate present value of collection based on inflation for all movies

No Movie Year Inflation Adjusted Tamilnadu Collection Inflation Adjusted Domestic Collection Inflation Adjusted Overseas Collection Inflation Adjusted Total Collection
1 Drushyam 2014 27.75 31.08 2.77 33.85
2 Babu Bangaram 2016 38.81 45.61 4.10 49.71
3 Guru 2017 27.40 30.50 1.58 32.08

Step #3 - Calculate expected collection based on weightage

For calculating expected collection for an actor, we give appropriate weightage to the movies based on several factors. The weighted average is used to calculate the expected collection of an actor.
No Movie Year Inflation Adjusted Total Collection Weightage Collection * Weightage
1 Drushyam 2014 33.85 1.00 33.85
2 Babu Bangaram 2016 49.71 2.00 99.41
3 Guru 2017 32.08 1.00 32.08
Total 4 165.35

Total expected collection for Venkatesh = 165.35/4 = 41.34 Cr